By Chris Spencer

Last year, when I introduced Target Percentages, I made sure to point out that this was not a method to rank players but merely a tool to keep you focused on draft day.  Well … that is about to change.

I have now come up with a way to rank all players – pitchers, catchers, big fat first basemen, unloved catchers, speedy outfielders.  All in one list!

What you will need is …

… a set of projections that you trust, good spreadsheet skills, and standings from last year.  Of course, more than last year would be ideal, but, at a minimum, have last year’s.

For this exercise, instead of projections, I will be using 2009’s final stats and the following starting lineup:

C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P, P

The Target Hitter/Pitcher

Find the target levels for each stat used in your league and divide by the number of hitters or pitchers.  For example, here is what the target hitter would look like for the 12-team, 5×5, FBTM leagues:

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Here is what a target pitcher would look like:

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The “Per Hitter/Pitcher” row is simply the Target Number divided by the number of hitters you start in your league.  In this case, it is 14 hitters and 9 pitchers.  Notice that batting average stayed the same per hitter.  Any ratio stat will not get divided.  You are not going to target anyone with a .020 batting average  - that is .2802 divided by 14.

Create a new worksheet in your spreadsheet titled “Targets” and put this data into that sheet.   Now that you have a snapshot of the Target Player for your league, you can begin to rank the player pool based on their relationship to that Target Player.

I have created a demo spreadsheet for you to download and follow along.

Feel free to leave me questions in the comments, fans!

Tomorrow:  Ranking the Hitters

Indeed, it will be the beginning of an epic journey that will take you through Mr. Spencer’s Target Rankings.

A week-long series, Chris will define the Target Player, cover hitters and pitchers, discuss position scarcity, and, finally, put the picture all together into one nice, neat, tidy package.

DON’T MISS IT!

Allen writes, “My draft is coming up in the next week or so, and I’m starting to get prepared.  I’m in a 10-team, H2H, keeper league with teams able to keep 2-9 players (anything over 2 and you forfeit a draft pick starting in Round 1).  Most kept 9, with 1 team keeping 2, 1 team keeping 5, and 1 keeping 7.

My keepers are:

[]

• Matt Holliday (LF)
• Carl Crawford (LF)
• Curtis Granderson (CF)
• Grady Sizemore (CF)
• Troy Tulowiski (SS)
• Aaron Hill (2B)
• M. Cabrera (1B)
• Johan Santana (SP)
• C.C. Sabathia (SP)

**note:  we have to play positions in the outfield

My first 3 picks will be 16, 27 and 36.   My first thought was to go for the highest ranked available player (regardless of position, unless CF or LF) on the first pick.   According to what source you use, that might be someone like Joe Nathan or Mariano Rivera.

The other option is to target the week pool positions (3B and C).  What do you suggest, and what source do you think would be best in referencing predictions?   I’m leaning towards Youklis (1B and 3B) or Nathan/Rivera for my first pick if they are there.  Suggestions?  Thoughts?”

Hi, Allen.  Great question, and thanks for reading FBTM!

So, if I follow, 77 players will be off the board at the start of the draft and 15 more will go before you get your first choice.   I’m a little confused about how you will play two left fielders and two center fielders … unless there are two utility (or one general OF and one UT), but I’ll assume that you can get all four of your outfielders in your lineup at the same time.   That probably means you don’t have a lot of flexibility to play a DH-only type like Vlad Guerrero with your studs already taking up that spot.

I’ll also assume your remaining starting lineup will need C, 3B, RF, and pitching.   If you can really get Youkilis, Riviera, or Nathan at overall pick #93, my advice is:  quit this league and find a tougher one.  All three should be long gone before you come up to pick.  In the FBTM Mock Drafts, average picks 93-96 were the likes of Joakim Soria, Heath Bell, Gordon Beckham, and Yovani Gallardo.  It’s difficult to know what you are facing without knowing exactly who is being kept, but it’s better to prepare for the worst and grab values if they happen to fall to you.

The big consideration to me is, since this is a head-to-head league, what categories are you setting out to win every week?  In head-to-head, especially in a shallow format (like 10-team), it is no shame to punt in some areas and focus on winning your strong categories every week.   In fact, in a shallow league with too “balanced” a team, you head into each week within a margin of error of losing in every category – not how I want to live.  Instead, it is worth the investment to have some categories where you should be able to bury the competition weekly – and that means multiple studs in categories you can run away with like steals, saves, homers, wins, and strikeouts.  Set yourself up to be fearsome in four or five categories, win two or three more the majority of the time, and you have a winning head-to-head team.

With two great starters on your team already, one strategy would be to get two or three more excellent starters in your first three picks to bank two points from Wins and Strikeouts weekly with a good shot at taking ERA and WHIP to boot.  For example, maybe you pull together three of Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Ubaldo Jimenez, Ricky Nolasco, and Matt Garza.  All should still be on your draft board at the start.  Maybe Tommy Hanson, somehow, escaped the view of your competitors – he would be a great first pick in a keeper.  In the mid-late rounds (16-20), keep gobbling up good starters to beat up the opposition with two-start weeks – Roy Oswalt, Kevin Slowey, and Rich Harden all went after pick #160 in the FBTM Mock Drafts.  They would fit the bill.

You are going to play guys who have three or four closers in ten-team H2H, so trying to win saves weekly, or attempting to crank down your ratios from a bunch of relief pitching, would require an investment I wouldn’t try to make, based on where you start out and unless you are required to start a certain number of relief pitchers.  In this format, you could wait for a new closer to emerge somewhere or roster an Octavio Dotel-type, third-tier guy in the very late rounds just to pick up a point from saves whenever you face someone else who doesn’t have closers on their team either.   If you are stuck with an “RP” spot you have to fill, a Neftali Feliz or Brett Myers may give you RP eligibility with starter strikeouts and wins.

On offense, you’ve got a good start in HR and RBI, but steals and average are more your strength.  Your challenge is to get some late HR/R/RBI without completely sabotaging your great batting average.   If they can chip in steals, that’s fine, but with Crawford, Granderson, Tulo, and Sizemore, you should already consistently win the category.   One of those top three picks can go to adding one more offensive stud, probably at RF.  Maybe a guy like Hunter Pence, Bobby Abreu, or Nelson Cruz will sneak through to you — all of which would be worth your top pick for their over-the-top contribution to steals with additional potential in other categories.

If not, keep an eye on Jay Bruce, who will provide power from your RF spot and may slip past the 10th Round.  Bruce’s batting average will rebound this year and I predict he’ll even have more keeper value than Granderson a year from now.  Late in the draft, you will probably be able to get Chipper Jones to get you great average and power at 3B in the weeks he plays.  If not him, Adrian Beltre or Casey Blake would be a reasonable choice to hold down the weak link in your offense while you watch for a breakthrough third-sacker on the wire to upgrade with.

A Yadier Molina/A.J. Pierzynski-type, late at catcher, would be good to keep counting stats coming while putting up a nice .290-.300 AVG.  Maybe these are not the all stars you imagine complementing the great list you kept, but they are late values that allow you to focus on building your strengths.

If all this comes together, I could see you winning SB, Wins, and Strikeouts 80% of the time, AVG, Runs, ERA, and WHIP 65% of the time, HR and RBI half of the time, and saves when your opponent forgets to set their lineup.  That’s a playoff team with a good chance at ending up … “in the money”.

Nick writes in and asks, “I asked a few questions last year and it paid off with me winning my first ever championship.  It came at great cost, with me trading Albert Pujols for a bounty to ensure my victory, but it worked out.

A lot of the guys in the league don’t see me as a contender this year because I don’t have Pujols anymore.  But, if you look at any Top 25 list for 2010, I’ve got at least 6 or 7 players in there as a result of the trade.

We have …

… 9 teams, and our offensive categories are OBP, R, HR, RBI, SB, and K.  My best pitcher left (as a result of churning the wire the last few days of the season) is Jon Lester … who I’m not keeping.

Here is my short list of keeper candidates:

• Joe Mauer
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Matt Kemp
• Matt Holliday
• Justin Upton
• Carl Crawford

We get to keep three, and I’m leaning toward the first three I listed there, due mainly to position scarcity.  Out of nine teams, someone is going to get a lousy C and SS, and I’d rather nail these positions down at the get-go and stack my OF and corners while someone has to take Kurt Suzuki.

Who do you see as my best options?”

First off, Nick, thanks for following FBTM … and thanks for the question.  Secondly, congratulations on winning your first title last season.  Victory sure tastes sweet, doesn’t it?  I’m glad we could help!

Now, in your case, there is a bit of a sour note, having to throw back three elite players.  Now, it’s time to weed them out for you.  My picks are Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, and Justin Upton. I know that that’s bound to ruffle a few feathers, but my reasoning is this:

Joe Mauer cannot repeat last season’s success.  A .373 BABIP seems a bit high, even for a player who owns a career mark of .344, so I’m expecting a regression based on that.  Also, those 28 HR he belted last year – to me – appear to be an aberration.  Mauer’s HR/FB ratio was a career high 20.4%, nearly double his previous career high (in a full season). For comparison’s sake, Albert Pujols, an established power hitter, posted a 20.1% HR/FB rate, which is his career mark.  I’m not buying it.  To boot, his OBP was .036 pts above his career average, his SLG was .104 pts above his career mark, and his OPS was a whopping .139 higher.  Now, this could be a sign of a hitter coming into his power years, but there is always the chance that you’re paying for a career year.

Carl Crawford, as much as I like the guy, I can’t justify taking him in the 1st Round.  There are other experts, or even fans, that say that finding reliable stolen base threats are harder to find then finding reliable home run hitters. That may be true … to an extent.  After all, stolen bases rely on a player getting on base.  This is something that Crawford did at a career high last season by posting a .364 OBP.  That was .029 above his career mark.  His BABIP was also a touch higher (.012) than his career norm (.330), and if you hold any stock in his declining SB total as the season progressed, you may want to find a way to get speed on your roster in a different manner.

Troy Tulowitzki.  I’m just going to use one number and deflate a lot of Tulo’s perceived value.  64.5.  That’s the success rate that Tulowitzki had on the base paths.  That’s correct.  Tulowitzki was only successful at stealing a base 64.5% of the time.  That’s not very good.  Now, I will say this in Tulo’s defense.  He is a fantastic offensive force from the shortstop position.  He has tremendous power, hits for a solid average, and will score plenty of runs.  But, a base stealing machine?  No, he is not.  100/25/100/5/.290 is not a stat line to be ashamed of, but I can’t take it over the 100/30/100/15/.310 line that Matt Holliday will give me.

As you mentioned, this is a 9-team league, so getting stuck with Kurt Suzuki or Miguel Montero at catcher and Elvis Andrus or Yunel Escobar at shortstop isn’t such a bad thing … especially when you already have the league’s best outfield.

… pull the trigger on the following deal:  Matt Kemp and Pick #37 for Pablo Sandoval and Pick #61?  I would be getting Kemp and the higher pick.”

Hi, Shawn. Thanks for following FBTM!  We really appreciate your support!

Actually, this is an easy one for me.  You’re getting a 1st Round caliber player for a 3rd Round caliber player.  Plus, you get the higher draft pick? DO IT! Before they change their mind!

Off the cuff responses aside, however, I truly think you go for this deal.  Let’s face it, Kemp is being talked about as one of the Top 5 players in this year’s fantasy pool.  If not that, he’s certainly in the Top 10.  How can you walk away from that?  Especially since you also get a two round bump in the exchange of draft picks.

I’m not blind to the fact that your league plays four corner infielders, and I certainly think that the Panda is a very solid 1B/3B option, but, given the fact that 1B is a bit on the deeper side this season, I think you take your chances.  Yes, I’ve been amongst the “touts” to accuse 3B of being a desolate wasteland after you get past the upper-level options this season, but, in my mind, the prospect of acquiring Kemp is too good to pass up.

Of course, having answered Shawn’s question, I learned a lesson of my own … don’t jump to a conclusion too quickly!  Why?  Because Shawn responded to my initial response with, “The thing I am worried about is Ks. They are -2 points in our league, and Sandoval strikes out half as much.”

Ah, a points league.  My reply?

“Each league has its wrinkles, Shawn, and my responses always assume standard leagues unless otherwise informed.  Would Kemp still be 1st Round caliber in your format?  Maybe you can answer that better than I, but the fact remains that 30-30 talent doesn’t grow on trees.”  The lesson?  It’s obvious.  Make sure you know what type of league you’re talking about before you ‘leap’ into doling out your “expert” advice, but the conversation wasn’t quite finished just yet.

“To put it into perspective,” Shawn says, “Kemp out-pointed Sandy by 35 points or so last year.  What do you think both players’ max is”?  Well, that’s a good question, as well, but I responded that it is, “Hard for me to answer the ‘max’ question because points leagues aren’t my forte’.  Yet, I’d still stick with Kemp.  Panda isn’t going to go 30-30.  And, as you point out, Kemp out-earned Sandoval last season.  I see no reason to believe that it won’t happen again this year.  Plus, one final point, Sandoval’s physique (or lack of one) does worry me a bit.  I’d stick with the better athlete.”

Shawn was still concerned.

“The problem I am having is that there are far more 500 point OFs than there are 3B.  Who would you rather have?   Zimmerman, Sandoval, and McLouth? Or, Zimmerman, Kemp and some scrub 3B like Encarnacion?”  Look, Shawn.  I really feel your conflict here.  Trust me, I really do.  Your sensibilities are at war with each other.  You know that Kemp is a marquee player.  You didn’t need me to tell you that.  On the other hand, 3B is a weaker position this season and you need to have two of them.

The fact of the matter is that you’ll need to make the final decision on your own, but, assuming that you already have Zimmerman on your team, and assuming that you can grab a lower-level 3B that won’t hurt too terribly, I still make the trade.  Talents like Kemp just aren’t available that often, and, when I build my teams – no matter what the format – I try to stock up on as much top-level talent as I can.  Kemp is a top-shelf talent.

To kick it back into your court, could you end up with Zimmerman, Kemp, and Beltre?  If you could, I would be able to live with that just fine.  Good luck, Shawn, and let us know what you decide to do!

Brian asks, “Two questions I have that are somewhat related … thinking NL-Only leagues:

1.  Is Chase Utley’s advantage over other NL 2B enough to make him the overall #3 pick.?  This puts him ahead of Braun, Fielder, and Howard.  My numbers say ‘yes’, but my heart says don’t draft a 2B that early.

2.  Second question (that might be tied in), is …

… Prince Fielder really expected to produce better than Ryan Howard in 2010?  Seems like almost everywhere I look, Prince is projected first of the two.  Once again, I may be living in the past not to see this, so please help me see the ‘light’ (if it is there).”

Brian, first, let me say thanks for supporting FBTM. Now, on to the great questions posed.

1.  I think this one is the clearer-cut of the two questions to answer.   Chase Utley is certainly worth the #3 selection in NL-Only formats.

Second base in the senior circuit is dreadful!  After Utley,  you have a very capable contributor in Brandon Phillips and, then, well, pretty much nothing.  Dan Uggla and Rickie Weeks about sum up your later 2B options.  On the other hand, passing up Braun or Kemp still means your #1 OF could wind up being Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier, Manny Ramirez, or Adam Dunn.  Similarly, after the likes of Fielder and Howard are gone at 1B, emerging studs such as Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez could conceivably be nabbed in the 2nd Round … or solid veterans like Derek Lee or Lance Berkman later in the draft.

There is a time to disregard position scarcity and just take the best player, but this is not that time. Utley could be argued to be the best player in the available group at #3 anyway, so the position scarcity only makes the choice easier.

2.  This is a much tougher question.  My simple answer is, I don’t know why!   I think the excitement surrounding Fielder deals with his age (only 26 in May) and the fact that we haven’t seen the best of him yet.  Maybe his ceiling will be higher than Howard’s?  But, I don’t know if that alone warrants being picked ahead of Howard on a consistent basis yet … as we see is the case courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com.

What I do know is that Howard has no less than 136 RBIs in four full seasons and no less than 45 HRs.  He sports a respectable .279 career batting average and is in a lineup that has driven him across the plate 100+ times three of the past four years.  Whereas Fielder has had more than 120 ribbies just once in four seasons and less than 35 HRs twice. He is a career .284 hitter, but he hasn’t reached even 90 runs twice.

As with all questions, the format can alter things greatly.  In a keeper league – or a league that counts Ks – I take Fielder. But, in a standard 5×5, I still have to go Howard knowing that his floor may still be higher than Fielder’s in 2010.

What are the leagues? They’re “Tout Wars”-style auction leagues. In other words, we will …

… loosely follow the Tout Wars constitution.  By the way, “loosely” will be defined as  - we’re not going to re-write their constitution to fit our exact purposes, but we will use it as a general guideline.  Any issues or disputes that may come up throughout the season will be arbitrated by myself and fellow-commish Matt Vandenbrand of FBTM.

The leagues are weekly, 12-team, 5×5, standard leagues with 23-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P, 5 Bench).  We’ll use weekly FAAB bidding on Free Agents and start the season with a $100 FAAB Budget.  Each of the leagues is a healthy mix of industry experts and FBTM readers.  There you go, my faithful readers.  You have your shots at us!

This should be fun.  I have to admit, it has been a number of years since I’ve done an auction league.  Up until the last few seasons – where the standard fantasy baseball websites have built up their capability to support auction drafts – snake drafts were the easiest and, in my opinion, best way to go.  The one thing I will miss, however, is the enjoyment of a face-to-face auction.  Those use to be a blast!

I want to extend my sincere thanks to the 23 other competitors.  FBTM really appreciates your continued support!  So, to the leagues …

FBTM Hot Corner Auction League

• Matt Vandenbrand, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com
• Peter Billingsley, FantasyPhenoms.com
• Jon Williams, AdvancedFantasyBaseball.com
• Pat Mayo, RotoCommunity.com
• Chris Spencer, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com
• Jesse Severe, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com
• Ed Taylor
• Tony Bartlett
• Joe Lano
• Corey Holzer
• Richard Yeni
• Robert Burakiewicz

FBTM Grand Slam Auction League

• Bob Sikon, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com
• Charlie Saponara, FantasyBaseball365.com
• Ivar Anderson, FantasyGameday.net
• Matthew Tavormina, FantasyBaseballTradeMarket.com
• Dave Gawron, RotoCommunity.com
• Jason Zavasky, ProFantasyBaseball.com
• David Miller
• Stu Malloy
• Andrew Cubides
• Mike Mallon
• Ken Balderston
• Darren Wheeler

Let the bidding begin!!!

“More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly.” – Woody Allen

That’s what I feel like when drafting starting pitchers.  In preparation for this year’s auctions and drafts, I’ve had the chance to …

… review the results of FBTM’s eight mock drafts, and nothing is harder for me to figure out than the right order for preferring our unpredictable Major-League hurlers.

Their BABIPs float up and down, they lose a closer’s role.  They get left in for too many innings by their managers, and mostly, they just get hurt.  But, despite the inspired rants by fantasy experts every August or so to kick pitching out of fantasy baseball altogether, we addicts all come back every March to take another shot on figuring out what makes for the best draft-value among hurlers.

Before we start, here are a few details.  These eight mock drafts were standard, mixed, 5×5 leagues with at least nine pitchers.  The data was compiled by FBTM trader – and ace numbers-cruncher – Chris Spencer.   Any pitcher can end up dramatically underperforming their projections, and a few always manage to dramatically over-perform.  While all are risks, however, many look especially unlike their mock draft place to me.

Jair Jurjjens, for example, was getting drafted 118th overall, 25th among starting pitchers, and before the close of the 10th round of a 12 team mixed league.  I’ve always liked Jurrjens, the kid who always seems to outperform expectations.  Still, the batting average on balls in play in 2009 was unsustainably low, the K rate has always been on the light side for a fantasy ace, and the defense is not going to be an asset to his performance in Atlanta this year.

Paying for a repeat of the 2.60 ERA is a bad idea when Jair’s SIERA was a whopping 4.31.  In the latter half of the eight mock drafts, after the shoulder injury became known, Jurrjens dropped two spots in average position, making way for passes by the worthy Ricky Nolasco and Wandy Rodriguez.  I’d also not think twice to take John Lackey (27th starting pitcher) or Chad Billingsley (28th) well before Curacao’s greatest active MLB player.

Max Scherzer went 155th overall in the FBTM mock drafts, 35th among starters, or late in the 13th round.  It’s not hard to understand the attraction – Scherzer is a young strikeout per inning pitcher who made a splash debut in 2008 and seemed to consolidate that growth in 2009.

There are lots of things not to like, though.  For one, Scherzer’s workload shot up last year, from 109 combined Major and minor league innings in 2008 to 170.1 in 2009.  Now, he goes to the “tougher” league, where he gets left in every fifth day until Jim Leyland decides to take him out.  That’s the same Jim “Verducci Effect” Leyland who placed two pitchers in the top three in MLB in “pitcher abuse points” last year – Justin Verlander at #1 and Edwin Jackson at #3.

I see Scherzer giving help in Ks with enough potential to hurt in ERA and WHIP that I’d pass in favor of some later, less flashy, picks.  Scherzer went as high as 123rd overall, rarefied air for drafts that I don’t see him backing up under almost any circumstances this year.

Wait until the 15th round, and you just might get Gavin Floyd instead.  173rd in average FBTM mock draft position, and 42nd among drafted starters, Floyd labors against the perception he regressed last year, can’t overcome the US Cellular Field impact, or maybe just that he’s one of those prospects who wore out the patience of fantasy owners through his years of Philly disappointment.  The stats actually tell a different story.

Floyd’s strikeout rate and WHIP both improved in 2009, while some regression in the BABIP and bad luck meant the wins and ERA disappointed.  Give me a strikeout pitcher who has taken his lumps and continues to improve over an unproven rookie any day.

In the 19th Round, Ervin Santana was available (on average) in the eight FBTM mocks.  Specifically, the lesser Santana went 226th overall, or an unbelievable 57th among starting pitchers.  In a 12-team, mixed, league, that makes him one of the last fifth of starters taken.  That is not just undervalued.   Low fifth starters are Washington Nationals pitcher territory.

Let’s dispel some common misperceptions, shall we?  Ervin has been more than a full run of ERA better on the road than at home for two straight years.  Also, while he was injured early last year, the 3.16 ERA after August 11th, including a pennant-clinching complete game shutout against the Rangers, quietly reestablished Santana’s credibility as an elite fantasy option.  If his strikeout rate returns to pre-2009 form, Santana might be the biggest value of the 2010 draft.

Remember, just because you are choosing between despair and extinction doesn’t mean you can’t have fun along the way.  While dependable pitchers are hard (impossible?) to find, good risks nearly always abound in the late rounds.  Happy drafting!

In my previous article, I focused on pitchers who had a breakout 2009 and discussed whether or not they can sustain their success this season. I don’t want to discriminate, so, in this article, I’m going to start tackling the same concept with a new subject – hitters.

Most recently, Arizona OF …

… Chris Young (2007 – 32 HR, 27 SB but since then 37 HR, 25 SB) and Seattle OF Milton Bradley (2008 – .321 BA, 22 HR, 77 RBI then in 2009 – .257 BA, 12 HR, 40 RBI) who have fooled owners into thinking that they were ready to become fantasy gems.  Let’s take a look at a look at one of 2009’s darlings to see if he is going to be the real deal or just more fool’s gold.

Last decade, Toronto’s power supply came from Carlos Delgado, Vernon Wells, and Troy Glaus.  In the final year of the ‘00s, it was DH/OF Adam Lind – who hadn’t hit more than 11 HR in a season – who provided their surge with 35 HR and 114 RBI.  Can he start the next decade the same way he ended the previous one?

Well, let’s just say that it hasn’t gotten off to a good start.  The team has gone through a decent-sized overhaul in the past year.  Yes, they obviously lost their veteran anchor in the rotation, Roy Halladay.  But, they also lost a bigger piece than we imagine in their lineup, SS Marco Scutaro.  Marco was in the Top-10 in the AL in BB and only one of 22 players to score 100 runs or more last season.

The lineup has also been depleted with the exits of OF Alex Rios and 3B Scott Rolen. Right now, they are leaning towards putting OF Jose Bautista in the leadoff spot, who, with a high K rate and average speed, is not your typical leadoff hitter.  There’s also been talk of moving All-Star 2B Aaron Hill and Lind down a spot from #2 and #3 to #3 and #4, respectively.

Cleanup is a spot not all that familiar, or comfortable, to Lind.  In his career, he’s had 25 AB with 0 HR and a .240 BA.  With really no competition, though, it looks like he’ll be forced into that role. Also, with Wells seemingly on the decline of his career, this lineup isn’t as dangerous as it was in the beginning of ’09.

With all of this, and a career track that showed no real signs of him having a MLB campaign like last season, it’s really hard to be confident that Lind will repeat his success in 2010.  Don’t overpay.

When you look at the Top-5 batters in the AL in ’09 – Joe Mauer, Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Jeter, Miguel Cabrera, and Michael Young – you shouldn’t be surprised at all.  Then, you go down to the player who is ranked # 6, Jason Bartlett, and you say, “Who?”

Bartlett, a former 13^th rounder, started off as a utility player until finally getting a chance to perform full-time in 2007. Don’t let the statistics fool you.  He was a key part in the ’08 World Series run for the Rays. In the following campaign, he proved to be more valuable by letting the stats do more talking.  He produced a career season (.320 BA, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB).

While B.J. Upton struggled tremendously in the role, Bartlett was given the opportunity to be the team’s leadoff hitter.  He didn’t disappoint, as he hit half of his 14 HR, drove in a third of his RBI and stole a third of his SB in only 57 games in the #1 spot.  It doesn’t hurt to have three All-Stars directly following JB in the lineup (Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Pena).

Judging from Longoria’s confident comments so far in Spring Training and with this being both Crawford and Pena’s contract years (we know how that usually goes), it looks like the Rays will rebound from subpar ’09. And one of the main beneficiaries from this should be Bartlett. If you wait a few rounds for the first tier of SS to be grabbed, you won’t be disappointed if you’re left with someone like JB.

I want to, first and foremost, thank Todd Farino and RC Rizza for their gracious hospitality this past Wednesday night on their show – Fantasy Baseball Tonight.  They are great guys, and they always make for a fantastic fantasy baseball conversation.  If you haven’t given them a try – or given this week’s show a listen – I urge you to download it with iTunes or listen to it HERE.  We talked about EVERYTHING!

Secondly, I want to …

… thank Todd for inviting Fantasy Baseball Trade Market to participate in Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League III!  The FBS expert league is an ABSOLUTELY STACKED 12-team, mixed, H2H league, and we are tremendously honored to be held amongst its esteemed owners.  We have the 8th overall pick in a group that includes:

1. ProFantasyBaseball.com
2. Matt Lutovsky of Sporting News
3. Rhett Oldham of FantasyBaseballSearch.com
4. RC Rizza of JunkyardJake.com
5. Todd Farino of TheCloserReport.com (owner of FantasyBaseballSearch.com)
6. Jason Swist of FantasyBaseballSearch.com
7. Tim McLeod of RotoRob.com
8. FBTM
9. LestersLegends.com
10. Mike Kuchera of TheFantasyMan.com
11. FantasyBaseballHub.com
12. Johnny Archive

I’m going to do the drafting, but staff contributor Matt Tavormina and I will pair up to manage the team.

Some thoughts right off the top?  First, outside of Tim McLeod – who seems to be in all of my leagues (Tim, are you stalking me, and I just haven’t noticed until now?) – I’ve never faced this crew.  It will be a tough challenge to jump into a league of guys who know each other better than you know them.

I’m dying to see the FantasyBaseballSearch.com contingent chew each other up at the draft this coming Monday night.  In a four-straight pick block (#3 through #6), I’m sure there will be a lot of gnashing of teeth and name-calling in the chat-room that night.

Johnny Archive’s reputation as a roster-churning trade maniac precedes him.  Watch out for this one, Matt.  I’m sure we’ll be peppered with two-dozen trade offers before the first pitch is even thrown this season.  Just be warned, Mr. Archive, sir, I’m a very methodical, conservative trader.  I’ll always give you an answer, but it will be a very well thought-through response.  Just be patient.  :)

How can I not look forward to taking on an esteemed representative of a globally-acclaimed outfit like The Sporting News?  It’s very nice to meet you, Matt.  I hope we take you down, and you know what, folks?  We’ll have our chance right out of the gate.  Week #1?  FBTM vs. The Sporting News.  It is ON!