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33 responses to this post.

1. Posted by Chris Spencer on February 5, 2010 at 8:57 AM

   Interesting that Kelly took Lindstrom. I was looking at the remaining “starting” closers and was all set to take Brandon Lyon here (and I still will).

   (1) Houston is paying Lyon more $ than Lindstrom.
   (2) Lyon 54 career saves. Lindstrom 20 career saves.
   (3) Lyon has never had a BB% over 10% in his 8 seasons. Lindstrom has had 2 out of only three seasons.
   (4) While neither one is that impressive, Lyon’s 2.30 SO/BB rate over the last two seasons looks better than Lindstrom’s 1.64 SO/BB rate.
   (5) Lindstrom missed a chunk of time in 2009 with an elbow strain that led to him being Wally Pipped by Leo Nunez. Lyon was healthy in 2009.

   I’m playing a hunch that Lyon will be named the opening day closer.

2. Posted by Ivar Anderson on February 5, 2010 at 9:06 AM

   I agree with you, Chris, and find your reasoning to be sound. Having said that, I fully expect that situation to be decided in spring training, and I wouldn’t want to take a chance on either guy for my roster. And I say this as a proponent of filling out my pitching staff with high-quality middle relievers/set-up men for the peripheral stats they can provide.

3. Posted by Kelly Pfleiger on February 5, 2010 at 4:21 PM

   I agree with Ivar that the closing situation in Houston will be decided during Spring Training, but personally think that Lindstrom will come out on top. I understand that they are paying Lyon more, but when does that actually determine who will close for a team. Ed Wade is the type of GM who will overpay for a setup guy like Lyon. Besides, I like that Lindstrom has a mid-90’s fastball and a sharp breaking slider. He was throwing fine during the World Baseball Classic until he injured himself. He never quite recovered from it in 2009.

   This is the point in the draft to speculate on saves.

4. Posted by Bob Sikon on February 5, 2010 at 7:54 PM

   If I told you that you could have – as your 20th of 23 picks – a guy who hit .277 with 28 HRs, 88 RBIs, and 75 Runs in 2009, wouldn’t you be interested? Even if Paul Konerko falls back a bit (.270, 25, 85, 75), as a late round selection, he’s a steal. When you factor in Carlos Quentin’s return to the line-up, I think he’s a really solid UT choice.

5. Posted by Kevin Orris on February 5, 2010 at 9:22 PM

   Ryan Raburn, OF DET

   He’s been underrated in drafts, especially with the power he showed last year in a limited number of at-bats. In some leagues, he even gets first and third base eligibility, or could reach it this year. Even if he just produces more of the same, I will be satisfied.

6. Posted by Tim McLeod on February 5, 2010 at 11:47 PM

   Colby Lewis, Texas, SP: This is the place in a draft to do some speculating and Lewis is one of my favourite sleeper picks heading into 2010. A return to health and change of scenery resulted in Lewis finally demonstrating the potential that made him a first round pick back in 1999. Last year with Hiroshima he struck out 186 in 176 1/3 IP with only 19 walks. He led the Central League in strikeouts and posted a sub-3.00 ERA both years he was in Japan. Lewis has the potential to deliver a solid return as an end play heading into the 2010 season.

7. Posted by Jason Sarney on February 6, 2010 at 12:05 AM

   Nick Johnson 1B NYY

   If he bats second and stays healthy he could be a cheap source of average, runs and about 20 homers. He’s not a bad gamble this late.

8. Posted by Mike Siano on February 6, 2010 at 9:35 PM

   Alex Gordon:
   I said last round I go power MR here but with my UT open and 5 SP I’m not going to overthink my last arm. The hip injury derailed what could have been a promising third season. The expectations have never been lower for the one time natural so I say pounce. This is zero risk and nuclear reward. Gordon starts hitting in ST watch his ADP skyrocket. He’s going to be all of 26 on Opening Day.

9. Posted by Bob Sikon on February 6, 2010 at 9:54 PM

   In the 20th Round, as you said, Mike, he’s little risk but huge reward. I love the pick. I just really wish he would blossom already. I can tell you that, personally, I’ve been waiting for, what seems like, an eternity for him to fulfill his promise … drafting him year after year. Gordon would be a good value pick in a mixed, but he could have an absolutely huge impact as a later round AL-Only “gold mine”.

10. Posted by Mike Siano on February 6, 2010 at 10:01 PM

    The only thing with Gordon is he such a sleeper that he doesn’t end up a value in an AL only auction? You get 3-5 people who have to have him he’s suddenly 15 bucks. Which could be a bargain but not what we have in mind. In a mixed though even if he jumps to the 15th he still could be a huge value. He’s a case study of mine int two AL only auction leagues this year.

11. Posted by Mike Siano on February 6, 2010 at 10:07 PM

    Gordon went for $25 in a 12 team AL only keeper I’m in last year. Can’t fault that price since he was trending up, but no way he sniffs $20 this year. Agree?

12. Posted by Bob Sikon on February 6, 2010 at 10:14 PM

    Personally, I would think that he wouldn’t reach $20, but now that you’ve mentioned $15, I’m wondering if he still has enough ‘post-sleeper’ upside that $15 – $20 might actually end up being his range. Honestly, as much as I have invested in him in the past, I think I’ve been burned too many times to go any higher than $10 to $15 … which means I might not be able to grab him myself. I’ll have to look back at the FBTM mock drafts that we’ve been running. I have a hard time believing he’s been drafted any earlier than the 18th to 20th Round.

13. Posted by Bob Sikon on February 6, 2010 at 10:21 PM

    I was right. In Fantasy Gameday’s draft on the 3rd, he went in the 18th. In FBTM’s draft on the 2nd, he went in the 20th. But, you were right, as well, Mike. A hot Spring Training, and he’s up in the 15th Round – or higher – range in no time.

14. Posted by Tim McLeod on February 6, 2010 at 10:37 PM

    The lack of quality at third base in the AL could drive his price to the high end of that 15-20 range I believe. When some of the options happen to be Brendan Harris, Encarnacion, Wood/Izturis, Peralta, Inge coming off surgery and whomever in Baltimore, what then is the relevant value and interest in a guy like Gordon that does have that upside potential? As you said Mike, if 4-5 guys decide he’s the preferred choice what then happens to the cost in acquiring him? Just some food for thought.

15. Posted by big o on February 7, 2010 at 2:04 AM

    if gordon doesn’t pan out this year , he may have to leave town .

16. Posted by Ivar Anderson on February 7, 2010 at 2:28 AM

    Aaron Harang, SP, CIN

    I am looking for a rebound for the former ace of the Red’s staff. If his BABIP trends downward, I believe he can be a steal this late in the draft. I’ve been burned by him the past 2 seasons, but he hasn’t yet made my DTM list. Another down year, and he’ll never grace my roster again. I blame Dusty Baker, not Harang for this turn of events. Maybe I’m overly optimistic, but cup half full, I say.

17. Posted by Ivar Anderson on February 7, 2010 at 2:33 AM

    Just for the record:
    Alex Gordon-DEAD TO ME.
    My complete, up to date list is posted here:
    http://www.pigskinaddiction.com/2010/Baseball/DTM.html
    as well as here:
    http://pigskinaddiction.com/blog/

18. Posted by Bob Sikon on February 7, 2010 at 6:29 AM

    I’m with you on that one, big o. By the time it’s all said and done, Gordon may become a prime candidate for the “change of scenery” treatment.

19. Posted by Bob Sikon on February 7, 2010 at 6:30 AM

    Would it have been easier to compile a list of the players who AREN’T dead to you, Ivar?

20. Posted by Brett Greenfield on February 7, 2010 at 10:18 AM

    Haha

21. Posted by Chris Mulligan on February 7, 2010 at 12:24 PM

    Alcides Escobar, SS, MIL

    Thought really hard about this one. I went back and forth between Escobar and J.J. Hardy. I’m a fan of Hardy, but have been burned by him a couple of times now. Time to go in another direction. Escobar has the potential to steal 40 bases this year, depending how often he gets on base. He needs to take more walks to do that though. I really love his upside, and he rounds out my offensive squad.

22. Posted by Cory Schwartz on February 7, 2010 at 1:06 PM

    The DTM chorus is going to have fun with this one, but I’m taking erstwhile prospect Homer Bailey of the Reds. His overall numbers last season were nothing special, but consider his stats in his last nine starts: 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 8.2 K/9 in 58.1 IP, although his walk rate was still a little high, leading to an unspectacular 1.32 WHIP. It didn’t hurt that he fattened up his stats by facing the Pirates four times during that run, but he also beat the Cardinals, Dodgers and Marlins, and held his own against the Rockies in Coors Field. He rediscovered his fastball velocity down the stretch, sitting around 94-95 MPH, and finally found consistency with his curveball and changeup, too. Despite previous struggles at the Major League level, he’ll only be 24 this year, and still has the stuff to be a top-flight starter.

23. Posted by Todd Habiger on February 7, 2010 at 1:13 PM

    I’ll continue to take high upside players and go with Travis Snider. The kid has a lot of pop and I expect him to be better than Adam Lind in the near future, maybe even as early as this year. When drafting in the later rounds I tend to veer towards high upside players figuring if they don’t pan out I can always grab a serviceable player off the waiver wire.

24. Posted by Brett Greenfield on February 7, 2010 at 3:15 PM

    Michael Brantley – OF CLE

    He stole 46 bases in 51 attempts in the minors last year and shows the ability to take a walk. He may lead off and be followed by Choo and Sizemore in the lineup, which could lead to 100 runs scored. Brantley could provide McCutchen-like numbers, yet twelve rounds later.

    Placido Polanco – 2B/3B PHI

    He returns to his old stomping grounds but this time at the hot corner. While I don’t like his .300 AVG and 90 runs scored from a third baseman, I like it for one more year as a MI. He could bat second in a powerful lineup.

25. Posted by Kelly Pfleiger on February 7, 2010 at 3:30 PM

    Hey Brett… Who do you guys at Fantasy Phenoms really believe will leadoff for the Indians? You mention Brantley here (and in your sticle), but in the shortstop rankings it states this regarding Cabrera:

    “Cabrera, Asdrubal SS CLE – Should bat leadoff with Choo and Sizemore to bat him in, I really like the upside here.”

    Please shed some light on the inconsistency.

    Not that I am picking on you Brett, but I don’t see Polonco hitting second in Philly. They got him to replace Feliz in the bottom of the order. The Phillies desperately needed a contact hitter behind Ibanez, Werth and Howard. All too many times last season one, or two, were on base and Feliz left them sitting there.

26. Posted by Kelly Pfleiger on February 7, 2010 at 3:31 PM

    “sticle” is obviously short for article. LOL!

27. Posted by Cory Schwartz on February 7, 2010 at 3:43 PM

    Can’t remember where I read this, but Charlie Manuel is already on record that Polanco will bat 2nd and Victorino will drop down in the lineup. Too bad it’s not J-Roll they’re dropping; his OBP is a bad fit at leadoff and his power/speed would play great in the 6 or 7 spot. Just sayin’.

28. Posted by Brett Greenfield on February 7, 2010 at 4:01 PM

    I guess either Brantley or Asdrubal will leadoff… thanks for reading our stuff!

    I believe Polanco is an ideal #2 hitter. He knows how to get on base. I think he bats second.

    In a about six weeks we’ll find out.

29. Posted by Brett Greenfield on February 7, 2010 at 4:04 PM

    It would be ideal like this:

    1. Brantley
    2. Cabrera
    3. Choo
    4. Sizemore

30. Posted by Ivar Anderson on February 7, 2010 at 4:13 PM

    Polanco was the perfect number 2 hitter in Detroit, I must say. Granderson, as the leadoff batter, left a bit to be desired, however.

31. Posted by Brett Greenfield on February 7, 2010 at 4:17 PM

    http://www.mlbdepthcharts.com/2009/11/philadelphia-phillies-2010.html

    http://indians.scout.com/2/903068.html

    Simply put, nobody knows.. it’s all speculation until Opening Day.

32. Posted by big o on February 7, 2010 at 11:29 PM

    testing … testing …. ARticle ….lol .

    this whole mock has been a lot of fun .
    appreciate that you guys have shared your thoughts ,
    and your time .

33. Posted by Kelly Pfleiger on February 10, 2010 at 3:15 PM

    Of course I read Fantasy Phenoms. I have to get the advantage on my competition every chance I can! LOL!

    I have not heard of Manuel talking about Polonco hitting second. I just think everyone assumes that he will since that is what he has done before. I can tell you from experience that Manuel likes have both Rollins and Victorino at the top of the lineup and believes they are what truly makes the offense run. Besides, if J-Roll does not get on base, then there is the chance that Victorino can get on and create the havoc that Rollins should have been doing. Personally, I think Polanco start Spring Training at the #2 spot, and is then dropped down by the end of spring.

    If he is dropped down, does that hurt his overall value in your mind?