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35 responses to this post.

1. Posted by Chris Spencer on January 23, 2010 at 4:44 PM

   Kelly, I agree with your assessment of Harden. I have been burned by him in the past, but at this point in the draft… nice roll of the dice with a chance for a nice payoff.

   Now, my pick…

   There are a few things that I am not proud of:
   - getting my step-sister in trouble purely for selfish reasons back in high school
   - pouring a pitcher of beer over a Michigan Wolverine fan back in college (can’t believe I wasted the beer!)
   - breaking up with a girl over email back in the late 90s

   add to this list the drafting of Brad Lidge here.
   This is what I get for waiting on selecting my #2 closer.
   Freakin’ Brad “Mental Midget” Lidge

   About the only thing I can say to try and convince myself that this is a good pick? His BABIP was 363 in 2009. the highest ever in his career. In fact, prior to last season, his career BABIP was 311.

   Yeah, this is a great pick… what’s that? He might not be ready for opening day? Great. Just great.
   Looks like I will be looking to grab Madsen in the later rounds.

2. Posted by Tim McLeod on January 23, 2010 at 5:56 PM

   LOL Chris. Other than those few brief concerns you’re relatively happy with that pick?

3. Posted by Bob Sikon on January 23, 2010 at 7:15 PM

   Brad Lidge?! Yech!

   Will it make you feel better if I take a bad closer of my own, Chris? Frankly, you can throw Matt Capps, Ryan Franklin, and Brian Fuentes in a box, shake them around, pull one out, and feel just as sick no matter which one you grabbed.

   Anyway, I think Fuentes is as bad as they come, but he’s got the job. Like Chris says about Lidge/Madsen, I’d probably be prone to chase after Fernando Rodney later in the draft. Oddly, I truly think Matt Capps might end up being the better pick of the three – he wasn’t nearly as miserable in the 2nd half of 2009 – but I just couldn’t bring myself to take him.

   Oh, well. Where’s my martini?

4. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 23, 2010 at 7:26 PM

   Oh, Chris, as a Michigan grad, I believe you do deserve Brad Lidge as your second closer. Enjoy the roller coaster ride, if he ever gets the closer job back. Go Madsen. Carpe diem.

5. Posted by Bob Sikon on January 23, 2010 at 7:29 PM

   I’ll run to Chris’s rescue, in case he doesn’t get there fast enough. He’s a Michigan STATE grad, if I remember correctly … which means you’ve probably just unwittingly hit him with the most heinous of insults, Ivar.

6. Posted by Chris Spencer on January 23, 2010 at 7:37 PM

   Bob, you are correct… I bleed Green & White. Ivar, I’ll try not to hold it against you.

   It was between Fuentes and Lidge… I flipped a coin. Seriously. Heads = Fuentes; Tails = Lidge.

   Tim, “relatively?” Hell to the no. If this were a real draft, I would be reaching for Madsen in the next few rounds to lock up the Philly closer spot (I don’t think Baez will be a factor). And as our esteemed colleague, Mike Siano, declares, “Chasing saves is fun, kids”

7. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 23, 2010 at 7:38 PM

   Bob and Chris, I have nothing against Sparty boys, I root for State except when we are playing them. But leave it to a Sparty to waste one of life’s most precious substances, a whole pitcher of beer. Beer is for drinking not wasting. Just my point of view.

8. Posted by Bob Sikon on January 23, 2010 at 7:41 PM

   No, no, NO! I’ve told our good friend, Mr. Siano, on several occasions – even in person at the Fantasy Summit in Cleveland a few years ago – that chasing saves is most definitely NOT fun. No. Not fun at all. AT ALL.

9. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 23, 2010 at 9:26 PM

   Ah, don’t be a baby. Saves and steals come into the league every year, and if you work the waiver wire, like I know we all do, you will prosper. Even in a competitive league where I only drafted Qualls last year I was able to finish in the middle with saves.

10. Posted by Bob Sikon on January 23, 2010 at 9:28 PM

    That doesn’t mean it is fun.

11. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 23, 2010 at 9:40 PM

    /channels Jim Mora
    Fun? Fun? You’re talking about fun?
    I’m talking about fantasy baseball, the purest form of entertainment that exists. Picking up closers of the day is what I live for.

12. Posted by Bob Sikon on January 23, 2010 at 9:46 PM

    Sheesh!

13. Posted by Chris Spencer on January 23, 2010 at 10:51 PM

    As much as it pains me to agree with Ivar, he is right.

    Saves come into the league. I’d venture to guess that only about 70-80% of a leagues total saves are drafted… the rest are found on the wire.

    Smells like a good idea for an article.

14. Posted by Kevin Orris on January 24, 2010 at 12:21 AM

    Ryan Franklin, RP STL

    I’m also going to reach into Bob’s box considering relievers are low and I only have one. Therefore, Franklin plays for a team that is going to score a lot of runs and hopefully that will lead to saves.

15. Posted by Tim McLeod on January 24, 2010 at 12:33 AM

    Or reason for another drink?

16. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 24, 2010 at 12:37 AM

    Personally, I never need a reason for another drink. And not a CC, either, Tim. But that’s why I draft my closers a bit earlier. Now you’ll all excuse me while I refill my tumbler.

17. Posted by Tim McLeod on January 24, 2010 at 1:20 AM

    If this was in fact a real draft I’d probably forego this next pick and do the waiver wire bit to find the balance of the saves I need to make my strategy work. Alas, it’s not, so to make things work I need to finish in the top half of the league in saves. I’ve always liked Matt Capps and agree that any and all of this final group of closers carries a substantial degree of risk. The velocity was good at the end of the season and combined with the always low walk totals a bounce back should be in order. He wasn’t given a $3.5 million deal to be the setup man for Brian Bruney. The other plus imo is that he was according to the rumour mill seriously looked at by at least 1/2 dozen teams before signing with the Nats, and that is enough of an endorsement plus his past successes to offer him a spot on my roster. Bob’s box is now empty!

18. Posted by Jason Sarney on January 24, 2010 at 12:31 PM

    Octavio Dotel, RP Pittsburgh

    I’m just keeping the trend going.

19. Posted by big o on January 24, 2010 at 12:42 PM

    chasing saves on the waiver wire :

    much more fun from a middle of the pack position ,
    than from the bottom of the heap .

20. Posted by Kelly Pfleiger on January 24, 2010 at 4:18 PM

    As a huge fan in Philly, I think it is my dubious right to make a comment on the pick of Brad Lidge. I watched his ERA get destroyed throughout last summer, and it pains me to think that he was injured for the majority of that time. Why can’t players be honest about their injury status? Now with two surgeries this off-season, including an additional one on his knee, I am genuinely concerned. Especially when I hear the Phillies worked out Eric Gagne. That clearly tells me that they do not have confidence in Madsen, nor do they think Lidge will be ready at the start of the season.

    So what was wrong with Lidge in 2009? Obviously the injuries have contributed to what I saw each day. Night after night, I watched Lidge throw two types of sliders. One that bites hard and ends up in the dirt, and one that just floats across the plate. Unfortunately, he had to throw the second one more often, because he could not locate his fastball down in the zone. That fastball was almost always belt high or higher for much of the season. Now this is where I get to talk about the technical side of pitching… The fastball down in the zone has the same trajectory as the hard downward biting slider. The goal of an out pitch is to have it start at the same eye level as another pitch, and then move away from that trajectory. Thus making it harder to recognize the pitch, and increasing your chases of a swinging strike. The combination of a low hard fastball, and the biting slider (with the same trajectory) allowed Lidge to be extremely successful in 2008.

    Fast forward to 2010… Lidge needs to regain his confidence in his fastball, which includes throwing it low in the zone. If he does this, he has a chance to be a solid bet for 2010. If he does not locate the fastball, I will begin boarding up my house since there will be baseballs flying into it. This is quite a feat since I live about an hour away from Philly. You laugh, but one of Brett Myers pitches just landed here the other day.

21. Posted by Mike Siano on January 25, 2010 at 1:45 PM

    Sorry about the delay and also sorry about the comments I’m reading. While there are no guarantees in life much less fantasy baseball saying you WILL get saves on the wire is quite odd to me being that you are competing with 11 other people and the luck of where you happen to be that day on the wire. While a Ryan Franklyn type may be sitting there as a FA and you can just grab him we all know as was mentioned above that the second a closer has a cramp and is pulled we all run to our comps and try to hit the button fastest. Hardly the soundest strategy I’ve ever heard.

    With all that I will make my pick. Thanks for waiting was out all day yesterday watching NFL.

    Rafael Furcal: His name fits right in with these last two rounds when you look at the bigger names that have taken quite a dip. Give me .270 with a couple dozen steals and flirt with 100 runs and I’m good. Very possible but unfortunately health and age related. Worth a shot in RD 16.

22. Posted by Cory Schwartz on January 25, 2010 at 1:49 PM

    To follow-up Siano’s comments, acquiring closers is about a lot more than just acquiring saves. Not proof, but fodder: http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/03/are_closers_worth_it.html

23. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 25, 2010 at 4:01 PM

    Chris Coghlan, OF, FLA

    For my 5th outfielder, I will take the NL ROY. I like the BA and runs he will provide, and will gladly take the 10 or so steals he offers as a bonus. My targets for my hitters are looking solid, although I still need 2 catchers (ugh).
    Now, if I can just find some pitching when round 17 comes around to me…

24. Posted by Tim McLeod on January 25, 2010 at 10:25 PM

    Great article Cory, well researched and written. The only concern I have is in the ERA/WHIP conclusion. In a standard format the mix is usually, but not always a 6-3 split between sp and rp. Now assuming, and again just an assumption that you get 900-1000 IP out of your starters, and 150-175 IP out of your three closers, does an ERA of 6.00 out of one of your closers really have much overall effect on the WHIP/ERA categories? Just ballparking it here but when looking at one closer you’re dealing with approximately 5% of your total IP so even a terrible ERA and WHIP will have a minimal impact on those final overall numbers. I personally am more concerned about the damage a sp can do as compared to the relief pitching component of my team when looking at ERA and WHIP. Any thoughts Cory?

25. Posted by Cory Schwartz on January 25, 2010 at 11:32 PM

    Thanks for the feedback Tim. No doubt a bad starter OR closer can do serious damage to your ERA or WHIP, but remember that the original point of the blog post is not only that the elite guys are worth more, it’s that they’re so much more reliable and predictable. (I’m prepping another post with ‘09 stats that overwhelmingly supports that again.)

    For reference, check out the average first and last place stats in the 26 NFBC main event (15-team mixed) leagues last year:

    http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/building_better_player_project.html

    Here’s what it took to move up or down a point in the standings in each reliever pitching category: .076 in ERA, .013 in WHIP, 28.3 in strikeouts and 5.5 in saves. So the difference between an elite closer and a third-tier closer was clearly worth a couple of standings points, never mind the greater return on investment.

26. Posted by Chris Spencer on January 26, 2010 at 8:54 AM

    Holy Cow… my selection of Lidge set off a flurry of comments!

    I just want to set the record straight that it was not my strategy to “find saves on the wire.” I fully intended to come out of this draft with a better #2 closer than Lidge. As we all know, you have to adapt on the fly during the draft. I waited too long and I am now stuck with The Lidge.

    My comment about finding saves out on the wire comes from the fact that in the last two 12 team 5×5 roto leagues similar to this one; just over 20% of the total saves that counted* came from the wire.

    2008: 1018 total saves (803 – 78.9% from draft; 215 – 21.1% wire)
    2009: 1064 total saves (840 – 78.9% from draft; 224 – 21.1% wire)

    *These are only the saves from active players. I’m pretty positive that there were still some saves to be had from players out on the wire that were not claimed.

    I fully understand what Cory & Siano are saying… but I simply wanted to point out that saves do come into the league. If you come out of your draft knowing that you are behind in saves, you must work the wire diligently to make up the lost ground.

27. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 26, 2010 at 8:56 AM

    Cory, I recall reading that article when it was first published, then deciding it was a keeper and printing it out for my draft strategy file. Nice work, good research used to prove a point, and helpful to those of us who give a bit a thought to strategy.

28. Posted by Ivar Anderson on January 26, 2010 at 11:01 AM

    Chris, it has never been my strategy to use the waiver wire exclusively to pick up saves. You can get a lot of bad peripheral stats that way. My point was that saves do come into the league, and if you are active on the free agent/waiver market, you can overcome an injury or demotion. Sure, you have to battle the other managers to get the shiny, new closer for your roster, but that’s part of what I like about playing fantasy-reading, watching and acting quickly when an opportunity presents itself.
    All that being stated, I vowed last year to make certain I had at least 2 1st or 2nd tier closers on my teams, and if the opportunity presents itself during the draft, I will pick up a third closer or the set-up guy I consider a possible injury/mid-season replacement when filling out my squad.

29. Posted by Brett Greenfield on January 26, 2010 at 12:38 PM

    Any picks coming?

30. Posted by Cory Schwartz on January 26, 2010 at 1:35 PM

    I’m ready, where’s Chris?

31. Posted by Chris Mulligan on January 26, 2010 at 10:38 PM

    Sorry to keep you guys waiting, but I work 12 hour days with no computer access.

    Casey McGehee, 2B/3B, MIL

    I need a 2B, and I should have addressed this position sooner. But, I like McGehee and I don’t think he is a one year wonder. As a Cubs fan, I got a chance to see him play coming up, and the guy can hit for real. He probably isn’t the .300+ hitter that we saw last year, but the power numbers are legit. Now, having a position all to himself this year, McGehee could put up 25 or more HR, and hit around .280 or so. I would have liked to get more of a sure thing at 2B, but I think I could be getting nice value in getting McGehee here when all is said and done this year.

32. Posted by Cory Schwartz on January 27, 2010 at 12:04 AM

    I really could use another starter here but the remaining choices are so flawed that I might as well put it off and grab another bat, and right now the best available looks like Adam LaRoche of the Diamondbacks. Although it’s very early in the draft to fill up my utility spot, in practice he’d move into the corner once Beckham qualifies at second base, with Zobrist moving into the outfield. LaRoche’s in-season streakiness is well known, but he’s actually been remarkably consistent on a seasonal basis, averaging .276 with 26 homers and 87 RBI’s over the last four. He enjoys hitting in his new home, hitter-friendly Chase Field, so I expect he’ll match or even exceed those numbers again this season, excellent production for this stage in the draft.

33. Posted by Todd Habiger on January 27, 2010 at 1:06 AM

    I’m going to fill up that utility spot right now and take Vladimir Guerrero. I’m guessing 50 HR and 190 RBI – oh crap wait, I was using the Tim McLeod projection scale, make that about half of those numbers down in Texas. Vlad can still hit and I’m guessing he can stay healthy in a DH spot. Here’s hoping.

34. Posted by Tim McLeod on January 27, 2010 at 2:43 AM

    You forgot the 30 stolen bases Todd, LOL. It does pain me being a long time spos fan to see Vladdy attempt to run these days. Man, he was something special in those early years in Montreal. I like that LaRoche pick Cory. His streakiness can be annoying but by seasons end the numbers are there. Now If one can find a backup first base for the bench to fill in the gap when LaRoche disappears for his customary month or so, you’ve got a serious bargain.

35. Posted by Brett Greenfield on January 27, 2010 at 8:33 AM

    I’ll take James Loney and Juan Rivera. Both should hit for averages close to .300 and have the ability to pop 20, maybe 25 homers. Additionally, both should bat in prominent lineup spots, making 90 RBI a possibility, assuming health.